Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Gasohol – push or shelve?
As in the case of the 70s in Brazil, Thailand’s drive to promote the development and usage of bio-fuels such as ethanol was first prompted by rising costs of oil, coupled with the assumption of continued rising oil prices.
Dramatic increases in oil price throughout 2008 led the government to further speed up the process, in July cutting virtually all tax on mix-ethanol fuel and diesel, and in the process, jumpstarting the promotion of E85 gasohol, a move criticized by some car producers as providing too little time for the car market to adjust to the changes required.
Given the downward trend in oil prices, some would argue that the force of the current push by the government to push gasohol is financially unnecessary, with oil prices down almost 60% today.
Thailand’s agriculture and industry need time to adjust to the new demands being made of them, and a too-rapid push may only serve to destabilize local industries, especially when such rapid adjustment is no longer required of them.
Although oil prices are currently low, there is no reason to believe that they will remain so. World Energy Outlook projects that the world’s oil reserves will be depleted by 2050. The savings made from not actively promoting renewable energies could be far outweighed by the cost of the inevitable future demand for alternative energy sources, as oil resources diminish in the next 40 years.
In the 90s, that the world would be left energy-less before viable alternative energy sources became widespread was a global concern. In the new millennium, the concern is focused not so much on the possibility, but rather the cost of switching to these new energies.
Brazil sets a good example. In the 1976, the Brazilian government made 11 – 22% blends of gasoline with ethanol mandatory. Now, it is considered the world’s first economy driven by sustainable bio-fuels. The nation’s ethanol program provides jobs to approximately 1 million people.
Thailand’s capacity to produce cassava and sugar cane, both raw materials for ethanol, have the capacity to support Thailand’s bio-fuel scheme. Cassava self-sufficiency (the ratio of total supply of cassava for food to consumption) is projected to fall from 419% in 2004 to 381% by 2011, following the current scheme.
Crude-oil self-sufficiency, however, does not increase as dramatically. It rises a meager 10.3% to 10.4%, leaving doubt as to whether this project has a real impact on Thailand’s self-sufficiency, or whether alternatives should be explored. After all the current cost of subsidies on gasohol is higher than the cost of substituting the fuel.
Strict economic terms, however, may not be the only factor to take into consideration. Thailand, having ratified the Kyoto protocol in 2002, has an obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A 2007 study by King Mongkut University of
Technology emphasizes other benefits, such as reducing GHG and other pollutant emissions; enhancing technological development; stimulating and expanding the market for domestic agriculture production and commodities; and generating rural employment and improving farmers’ income.
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This was my "homework" from my job interview. Less than 4 hours to research and write 500 words on what should be done with regards to Thailand's ethanol programme, in light of the current 60% drop in oil prices. *phew* Comments welcome!!
fon @ 5:54 PM link to post * *
Friday, October 03, 2008
Governor candidate justifies violence
"I am ready to apologise and get fined. But as a media professional, he should have ethics."
"I will pay the fine. It will be Bt500 for using an elbow and another Bt500 for stomping on him. I will pay a tip and to make it Bt2,000 in total."
- Bangkok Governer candidate Chuwit Kamolvisit after punching and stomping on television anchorman. He thinks that voters will be further encouraged to vote for him now because they know he isn't fake.
... The anchorman's 'unethical' action was to imply that Chuwit was "unmanly".
fon @ 7:39 AM link to post * *